Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
estate agents

The latest Mortgage Market Tracker report from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association reveals that confidence has returned to the mortgage market, with sentiment improving steadily month by month in the last quarter of 2023.

In total, 76 per cent of intermediaries said they were confident about the outlook for the market in September, falling to 69 per cent in October but then rising to 83 per cent by December. 

Of the 83 per cent, just over a fifth were ‘very confident’. The overall ‘confident’ figure for the quarter was 74 per cent. That is a marked improvement on Q4 2022, when 65 per cent said they were confident about the future for the mortgage industry.

Confidence levels in intermediaries’ own businesses were even higher, with 92 per cent of intermediaries describing themselves as confident in the outlook for their own firms in Q4 2023.

The average number of mortgage cases placed by intermediaries on an annual basis increased to 95 per year, compared to 92 in Q3. Mortgage brokers placed an average of 103 cases, while IFAs reported an average of 62.

Residential lending continued to accounted for roughly two-thirds of intermediaries’ business, buy to let around a quarter and specialist about one in 14 cases. The proportion of buy-to-let cases placed remained roughly the same as the previous three quarters of 2023.

Having increased to 25 in Q2, the average number of Decisions in Principle that intermediaries processed fell in Q4, with the lowest average of just 20 DIPs recorded in December and the Christmas period. The biggest falls were in DIPS for first-time buyer-focused brokers* and specialist-placing advisers.

In Q4 2023, conversions from DIP to completion remained stable at 38 per cent, close to mid-2022 levels. The overall conversion rate was broadly similar across all market segments except first-time buyer-focused brokers, who saw a six per cent fall. 

Brokers in the Midlands also saw a five per cent fall in DIP to completion conversions.

The conversion rate from full application to completion fell from 64 per cent in Q3 to 61 per cent in Q4, but was still up three per cent year-on-year.

Kate Davies, the executive director of the IMLA, comments: “It is interesting to note that the level of buy-to-let business remained broadly consistent throughout 2023, despite negative headlines. The slight drop in first-time buyer numbers was perhaps to be expected given the ongoing cost of living crisis and the increased challenge of saving for a deposit, on top of wider affordability constraints.

“These latest results are a testament to the resilience of intermediaries who have been operating in difficult conditions to secure the right solutions for their customers. Competition in the market is now lively, and lenders are confident that mortgage advisers will continue to work hard to find the most suitable mortgages for their clients from a vast array of products on offer. As a result, IMLA predicts that intermediaries will account for 89% of all mortgage business written this year.”

Over a third of landlords will push back energy efficiency measures due to government flip-flopping on the issue. 

Research commissioned by tax and consulting firm RSM UK shows that 35 per cent of businesses will roll back action to meet ESG goals due to last year’s government announcements to delay deadlines for several low-carbon targets.

In addition, nearly one quarter of UK landlords think that the real estate sector is currently not making quick enough progress to reduce its carbon footprint in line with the government’s target net zero emissions deadline.
Additionally, half of landlords think that the sector is making little or no progress in effectively developing and implementing environmental, social and governance policies, slightly down from 55 per cent the previous year.

A large majority (82 per cent) agree that real estate businesses need to have strong environmental credentials or plans in place in order to access financing from lenders, yet more than a third of landlords see access to funding as the second highest barrier to investment.

Landlords perceived the biggest barrier to de-carbonising the real estate sector to be lack of cost-effective tech solutions, lack of landlord willpower to invest in environmental solutions and the impact of the energy crisis.

A spokesperson for RSM UK says: “The government’s flip-flopping of its net zero targets is problematic for the real estate sector, and it is no surprise to see landlords pushing back plans against the revised targets. However, taking the foot off the gas now will slowdown progress and create an even bigger barrier to finance in the future if credentials slip.

“This highlights a disconnect between industry and policymakers, and signals a real need for collaboration to ensure real estate remains at the forefront of driving the UK’s transition to net zero. But, this will require investment to develop new technology to create green solutions and upskill workers – which is challenging given the volatile economic climate and the impact of the energy crisis.”

Agents are becoming more confident about a busy Spring market after the Bank of England held interest rates for the fourth consecutive time at 5.25%.

 The cost of borrowing remains at a 15-year high and the central bank has hinted that rate cuts could be a while away, but property professionals remain optimistic.

Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “Numerous rate rises and the high cost of living have inevitably impacted activity as they have heightened borrower concerns around affordability. That said, the housing market has proved remarkably resilient, with transaction numbers softening rather than falling off a cliff.

“Agents report a busy start to the year with motivated buyers and sellers keen to get on with their moves after a period of sitting on their hands and waiting for mortgage rates to improve.” 

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, added: “The upside of Bank of England’s inaction provides stability to the market, allowing buyer and seller confidence to build after a subdued year of activity. 

“Across the Jackson-Stops network we are already seeing a positive uptick in the number of prospective buyers and new properties coming onto the market in January, which will hopefully pave the way for a busy spring. Though the market will remain cautious in its optimism; only as the year progresses will we be able to determine more clearly how buyers behaviour will respond.”

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, is also sticking to the agent’s revised forecasts that house prices will rise this year.

He said: “The decision to hold was never in doubt but the fact inflation is due to fall notably faster than previously guided by the Bank of England is good news for the housing market. 

“For anyone buying or remortgaging, the Bank of England’s cautious tone should be weighed against the fact lenders set their fixed rates based on market expectations, irrespective of whether they come true or not. As the economic outlook improves, we expect UK house prices to rise by 3% this year

Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark, said: “It is positive to see that many people intending to buy their first home or sell their current one won’t be hindered by an increase in interest rates.  

“However, it is now time for the UK Government to continue to curb inflation so that interest rates can fall further to help ease the backlash this has had on people’s affordability. They should make 2024 the year consumers start to enjoy some confidence again following three years of disruption to the economy.”  

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