England is facing a massive population boom, stretching housing demand even further.
Development consultancy Msrrons claims the number of households is projected to rise by 17% to 27.6m by 2040.
It warns that there’s a growing imbalance between supply and demand, with more than 1.3m households on local authority housing registers in 2025 and more than 320,600 social homes projected to be lost by 2040 if current trends continue.
The largest household growth is projected in the South West (20%), followed by the East Midlands, East of England, Greater London and the South East (18% each), while the North East is forecast to experience the slowest rise at 14%.
At the same time, the housing market faces a generational squeeze.
First-time buyer households (25-44) are set to grow by 14% to 16.1m, student-age and young professional households (19-24) by 9% to 710,800, and later living households (65+) by 36% to 9.4m.
Marrons says this is reshaping demand across all tenures and housing types.
Director Dan Usher comments: “We are heading towards a structural mismatch between the homes England needs and the homes being delivered. Household growth is accelerating across all age groups, but supply – particularly in social and affordable housing – is not keeping pace.
“The scale of projected losses to social housing, combined with record waiting lists, points to a system under sustained strain. Without intervention, affordability pressures will intensify and access to homeownership will become increasingly out of reach for many.
“The proposed changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, particularly policy HO7, place greater weight on delivering homes that meet evidenced need. This makes robust, up-to-date data more important than ever in supporting planning applications and unlocking sites.
“The challenge isn’t just how many homes are built but whether they reflect the way people actually live – and will live – in the years ahead. Without a step change in delivery, we risk locking in a housing crisis that will become far more difficult and costly to resolve.”
The firm’s updated study – Housing 2040: Phase II – provides a region-by-region snapshot of England’s projected housing needs.
