Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
estate agents

Here are the headlines for the fifth week of the 2026 UK property market (week ending Sunday 8 February 2026).

I, together with Alice Bullard from Nested, analyse the market in the weekly UK Property Market Stats Show. 

 

🟩 Listings – Strong

170k new properties have come onto the market YTD , 1% ahead of 2025, 12% above 2024, and 24% higher than the 2017–19 average.

🟩 GrossSales – Strong

114k UK homes sold STC YTD , 15% higher than 2024 and 23% above pre Covid norms.

🟩Net Sales  – Strong

87k UK net home sales YTD (Gross sales less Fall Thrus)  running 15% ahead of 2024, 33% ahead of 2023 and 19% above the 2017–19 average.

🟩Overvaluing  – Awful

Some 47% of the homes that left UK Estate Agents books in January were withdrawn unsold. Main cause – blatant overvaluing supported by long sole agency agreements of 20+ weeks.

 New Listings

+ 36.9k new properties came onto market this week in week 5, up from 36.6k last week.

+ 2025 weekly average: 30.6k.

+ 10-year week 5 average : 33.4k.

 Price Reductions

+ 21k reductions this week

+ 12.2% of resi homes for sale were reduced in January. Jan 25 – 12.8%.   Jan 24 – 11.1%

+ 2025 average was 12.8%, versus the 5-year long-term average of 10.74%.

 Sales Agreed

+ 25.4k homes sold stc this week 5, slightly down as expected from 26k last week.

+ Week 5 average (for last 10 years) : 24.8k

+ 2026 weekly average : 22.2k.

 Price Difference between Listings & Sales

+ 19.7% difference (long term 10 year average is 16% to 17%).  (£425k ave Listing Ave Asking price vs £366k Sale Agreed ave Asking price)

 Sell-Through Rate 

+ 13.6% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in January ’26. (Jan ’25 – 15% / Jan ’24 – 13.9%)

+ Pre-Covid average: 15.5%.

 Fall-Throughs

+  5,468 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 423k home Sold STC).

+ Weekly average for 2025: 6,100.

+ Fall-through rate: 21.5%, slightly up from 20.5% last week.

+ Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%).

 Net Sales

+ 20k Net sales, down slightly from 20.7k last week

+ Ten-year Week 5 average: 19.7k.

+ Weekly average for 2026: 17.4k.

+ Weekly average for the whole of 2025: 19.2k.

 Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal)

+ Jan ’26  Stats : 53% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed in Jan. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more Feb stats come in).

+ December 60.2% / November 55.2% / October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%.

+ Jan 25: 54.3% / Jan 24: 50.7% / Jan 23: 54.4%  / Jan 22: 68.6%.

 Stock Levels 

+ 663k homes on the market on the 1st of February ’26. (660k – Jan 25)

+ 422k homes in agent’s sales pipeline on the 1st Feb 2026, slightly lower than 12 months ago on 1st Feb ’25 (433k).

 House Prices (£/sq.ft)

+ January ’26  agreed sales averaged £340.73 per sq.ft. 0.63% higher than 12 months ago (£338.59) and 16% than 5 years ago (£293.54). The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important.

The average UK private tenant spent £10,580 on rent in 2025 – equivalent to 41% of their net income.  

This marks a significant rise from 2024 when renters spent an average of 36% of their take-home pay on rent. 

The personal share of rent paid by each tenant increased by £684 (6.9%), while average net income rose only modestly from £27,710 to £28,810.  

The analysis by Canopy looked at some 119,000 individual renters, measuring average take-home salary of employed tenants against their share of rental costs.

Typically, spending 40% of take-home salary is considered the very outer limit of affordability.

Canopy says this indicates that the majority of tenants are currently at the edge of what is considered financially feasible or ‘comfortable’. 

Affordability worsens regionally across the UK  

Several regions now exceed the 40% affordability benchmark.

London is the least affordable region at 48%, despite having the highest average income at £37,600. 

Following close behind is the South East, with a 44% rent-to-income ratio. 

The North East offers the most affordable rent, with an average rent-to-income ratio being a third of their take home salary (34%).

Yorkshire and The Humber is just above at 35%. 

Full regional breakdown 

  1. London: 48% 
  2. South East: 44% 
  3. East of England: 42% 
  4. South West: 41% 
  5. East Midlands: 38% 
  6. West Midlands: 38% 
  7. North West: 37% 
  8. Scotland: 37% 
  9. Wales: 37% 
  10. Yorkshire and The Humber: 35% 

Least vs most affordable cities to rent 

The South of England continues to dominate the list of least affordable cities, but affordability pressures are now spreading northwards. Edinburgh and Manchester have now entered the top 10 least affordable cities. 

Outside London, Brighton has overtaken Bournemouth as the least affordable city, with renters spending 47% of their income on rent. 

In contrast, northern cities continue to offer the most manageable rent-to-income ratios. Durham, Doncaster and Hull top the list as the most affordable places to rent, with tenants spending just 32% of their income on rent. 

Young adults hit hardest 

According to the data, renters aged 18-25 are spending 50% of their take-home pay on rent, leaving little room for other essential costs and making saving for a house deposit increasingly difficult.  

On the other hand, rent-to-income ratios improve for those aged 26-45, but still sit at 40%, pushing the limits of affordability. 

 

UK house prices are expected to rise by 3% in 2026, despite recent increases in borrowing costs and economic uncertainty, according to Knight Frank. While stronger-than-expected UK data has pushed mortgage rates higher in recent weeks, the prospect of lower rates later in the year is one factor supporting price growth.

Markets had been expecting two Bank Rate cuts this year, though the likelihood of these reductions has fallen, with the five-year swap rate – a benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages – rising from 3.55% to 3.75%. This change suggests fewer lenders will be cutting rates in the near term, even as overall house prices are forecast to continue their upward trend.

“A lot of company earnings have been talking about the uncertain environment and headwinds they’re facing,” said Pepperstone research analyst Michael Brown. “So, I’m not saying I distrust the PMI, but I don’t think we should overreact to one report that doesn’t sing from the hymn sheet that all of the other reports do. We need to look at the data through February in terms of how the labour market is evolving.”

In other words, if more economic cracks start to show, expect markets to start betting more heavily on a second rate cut this year. And prepare for more optimistic news on mortgages.

One area of weakness that could increase the chances of a second cut this year is the jobs market.

“The recent jobs numbers pointed to a fourth straight monthly decline in employment,” said Brown. “It was the biggest month-on-month fall in employment since November of 2020 when we were going into a lockdown.”

Before the recent jump in borrowing costs, the housing market had responded positively to the certainty that followed November’s Budget. The number of transactions in December was in line with the five-year average, HMRC said on Friday.

However, mortgage approvals were down 9% in the same month, suggesting a pre-Christmas rush to complete rather than the start of a more meaningful upturn in demand.

“Two other factors have put upwards pressure on borrowing costs in recent weeks, said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.

“First, the prospect of a debt-funded spending spree by the Japanese government, which has pushed global bond yields higher in recent weeks,” he explained. “Second, there is a similar concern closer to home. The possibility that Prime minister Keir Starmer could be challenged unnerved bond markets last month when Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham announced he would stand in this month’s Gorton and Denton by-election.”

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