Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
estate agents

Time is running out for buyers to lock in deals

 

The property market has welcomed last week’s decision by the MPC not to raise interest rates, despite the rise in inflation to 3.1%, but most experts believe that time is running out.

“Holding BBR at 3.75% feels like the right decision, although the inflation figures underline just how much pressure is now building on the MPC,” said Steve Cox, chief commercial officer at Fleet Mortgages.

Ben Allen, managing director of The Right Mortgage & Protection Network, said it was now a wait-and-see game. “Maintaining BBR at 3.75% at least avoids adding further pressure to borrowers on tracker, discounted and variable rates, but attention will now turn to swaps, the future inflation outlook and, of course, the Budget next month and accompanying OBR forecast, as the country waits to see what those might mean for households, the economy and ultimately the mortgage market.”

For how much longer?

 

John Phillips, CEO of Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, also believes the MPC will soon be forced to increase the rate. He said: “Even with the news on inflation, a hold feels like the right call for now. For how much longer, though, is the crucial question.”

However, he said he was encouraged to see a modest jump in buyer registrations and listings so far in September, as well as buyers and homeowners reviewing their mortgage options. “While rates are changeable, there is still plenty of money out there in the market and lenders willing to lend – particularly as we edge closer to their end of year targets. That fact alone could very well encourage some positive activity,” he said.

Meanwhile, Simon Gammon, managing partner at Knight Frank Finance, said buyers and homeowners should react rather than wait. “We’re advising borrowers to lock in a rate as soon as possible – most deals can be renegotiated should borrowing costs fall,” he said.

But Ryan Etchells, chief commercial officer at Together, doesn’t believe everyone will do this. “The prospect of rate rises could provide an incentive for prospective home-buyers to move forward with plans and lock-in rates before any future rises. However, many will also be minded to wait and see if the situation improves in the short term.”

Home buyers have been returning to the housing market in growing numbers over the last four weeks, says Zoopla.

This follows the seasonal slowdown in activity over the summer.

But there’s a sting in the tail because there’s now 9% reduction in what households can borrow compared to the start of the year.

Mortgage rates peaked at close to 5% in April and this has led to more home buyers waiting on the sidelines over the summer months. 

Sales agreed are still down by 6% versus last year but the gap to last year is starting to close. 

Buyers can’t wait on the sidelines indefinitely and stability in mortgage rates means people are starting to search for homes again (+7% YoY).

Average five-year fixed mortgage rates have risen from below 4% in January to around 4.8% today. 

For a buyer who could previously afford a £200,000 mortgage while keeping their monthly repayment unchanged, that rate rise means they can now only borrow around £182,000 for the same monthly payment – a 9% reduction in how much they can borrow (or ‘buying power’).

In the face of reduced buying power, home buyers can choose to: wait for rates to move lower, look to buy cheaper homes, accept paying more on their mortgage repayments or put down a larger deposit to reduce the impact. 

The portal says there is no evidence of buyers scaling back on requirements and many have decided to wait over the summer with fewer sales agreed compared to last year. 

The average home buyer would need to add an additional £18,200 to their deposit on a home purchase to keep the monthly mortgage repayments unchanged compared to the start of the year.

This varies between regions, reflecting the variation in house prices – buyers in London would need to add almost double the national average to their deposit (£35,500) while lower house prices mean those in the North East would only need an additional £10,200.

The impact of higher mortgage rates on buying power is greater on first time buyers who often take longer mortgage terms and larger loans compared to existing homeowners. 

Despite reduced buying power, mortgage rates have stabilised and there has been a clear and sustained increase in the number of people searching for homes on Zoopla which is up 7% year-on-year – the highest increase since mortgage rates jumped in the spring.

Importantly, searching for homes is higher across every region and country for the first time in a year (since August 2025). 

The pick up in searching activity is strongest in the South East (+8.9%) and East of England (+8.5%), while the North West (+0.7%) has seen the lowest increase.

An increase in searches shows prospective home buyers starting their home buying journey and assessing the choice of homes and how pricing has changed over the summer. 

Late August and early September tend to see an increase in asking price reductions as sellers adjust pricing to attract buyers over the autumn. 

Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla, says:“Many buyers have taken a ‘wait and see’ approach over the summer months in response to higher borrowing costs and political uncertainty. 

“The low point for activity was mid July around the time of the World Cup final.  Since then we have seen a steady increase in the number of people searching for a home, assessing their options ahead of the post holiday rebound in sales market activity. 

“This is a nationwide trend and the first time searches for homes are up across Britain this year. 

“Average mortgage rates have stabilised but remain closer to 5% than 4% meaning affordability remains an important factor for many home buyers choosing their next home.  

“Buyers have plenty of choice this autumn and will be able to make competitive bids for homes. Motivated sellers need to price carefully to attract interest and bids and seek the advice of local agents for the likely levels of demand and interest in their home as market conditions vary widely across the country.”

 
 

New data from the government’s English Housing Survey lifts the lid on how long people stay in their homes.

Private renters – 4.7 years;

Owners with an outstanding mortgage – 8.9 years

Social renters – 12.2 years

Owners without w mortgage – 23.7 years.

The Nationwide has studied this and chief economist Robert Gardener says: “The average time spent in a home is around 14 years, although this masks significant differences across tenure types.

“Those who own their home outright tend to have lived in their current home for much longer than other tenure types, at nearly 24 years on average. 

“However, there is a significant skew in the data, with around a third of those owning outright living in the same property for 30 years or more.

“Those in the private rented sector tend to have the shortest time in a property. There is also a heavy skew (although opposite to those owning outright) with around half of those in the private rented sector being resident in their current property for two years or less.

“There has been a small increase in the average residence in the private rented sector over the last decade, while those owning with a mortgage have seen a small decline. 

“The latter may be partly due to homeowners with a mortgage moving more frequently, although compositional changes may also be playing a role (for example, as the population ages and more people transition into owning outright). 

“Around a quarter of those owning a home with a mortgage had been in their current home for two years or less, suggesting higher first-time buyer activity in recent years may also be a factor.”

As well as considering how long households stay in a given property, there is also data on the current pattern of activity and how much churn in the housing market occurred within and between tenure types.

The data for households who moved in 2024/25 (the most recent data) indicates that moves within tenure types dominate. 

Indeed, around three quarters of all moves were within the same tenure type and a quarter between tenure types.

Those moving within the private rented sector accounted for the largest share of overall activity, with 640,000 moves within the sector, nearly twice as high as the number moving within the owner-occupier sector.

 
Prime minster Andy Burnham has attempted to quell growing speculation that he may make fundamental changes to property taxes this year.

Yesterday he told journalists that he had no intention of scrapping stamp duty in his first Budget, expected in October.

His comments came following criticism from a prominent agent that the new PM was in danger of spooking buyers. 

Simon Gerrard, chairman of Martyn Gerrard Estate Agents, says: “If Burnham’s assumption of office is meant to usher in a new era, it’s begun with the same old mistakes made by the short-lived leaders of recent years. That is, with promises of big disruptive change casting a cloud of uncertainty across the market.

“We were supposed to enjoy a period of relative political stability after the tumult caused around the anticipated Budgets of last year. Now we’re back to sweeping reforms and new taxes being mooted through the press. This has a chilling effect not just on the housing market, but the wider economy as people hold fire and press pause on making decisions.

“Burnham would have been far wiser to signal continuity and safety. Our revolving door of leaders keeps shaking everything up in a bid to solve our problems when what the country desperately needs is a steady hand on the tiller to stay the course. Stability and certainty would provide the foundation for confidence, investment and economic growth. Mr Burnham continuing with promises of radical change to cure all our woes is likely to have the same effect as every other time before.”

Burnham now appears to have given a clear signal, telling journalists: “That won’t be happening. It’s just not the case that we are bringing forward plans, on that scale, at this moment in time.”

He was also critical of how such speculation had started. 

However, Gerrard remains critical of other speculation which may be hindering the housing market.

For example, Land Value Tax – another concept that Burnham appears to support, although without giving details.

Gerrard comments: “Imposing an annual land value tax could lead to catastrophe if it is not implemented correctly. Above all, there needs to be an appreciation that the London market is different from the rest of the country. 

“Saddling ordinary people with eye-watering tax bills just because they live in London is illogical. If care isn’t taken, this could see property values in the capital and South East crash, mortgage-holders trapped in negative equity and families unfairly hit with eye-watering bills.

“There are also huge questions around the logistics. It will take three to five years to implement because every property across the country will need to be valued. This will be a hugely expensive and laborious undertaking, which will outweigh any revenue generated for the first few years.

Finally the latest uncertainty is over Capital Gains Tax, which Lord Kinnock – cited by Burnham as effectively his mentor – says should be increased to the same percentages as income tax.

Gerrard says: “Other potential tax rises on capital gains tax or on wealth will backfire as previous attempts have all done. All it will do is deter investment and growth. If CGT becomes too high then it will undo much of the benefit of removing Stamp Duty. Those risking large bills will simply avoid selling and wait for the next government to lower the tax again.”

 
tpoTSI-ACsafeagenttdsrightmovezooplaonthemarketprimelocation2BPI Am Sold