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Published: 07 March 2026

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Forecast has provoked a predictably diverse reaction.

She admitted that growth in the UK economic in 2026 will be less than previously expected.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts economic growth for this year will be only 1.1% – it has previously forecast the economy would grow by 1.3% in 2026.

The OBR expects economic growth to pick up in following years: to 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, and then 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030. 

Reeves also admits unemployment is forecast to peak in 2026, and then fall every subsequent year until 2029.

She says it will “end the Parliament at 4.1% – lower than it was at the start”. Unemployment for the last quarter of 2025 was 5.2%, the highest level in years.

However, the forecasts don’t take into account the impact on energy prices and economic turbulence caused by the Iran War.

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In response James Bentley at Financial Markets Online comments: “Her speech has been completely overtaken by events. 

“… With the UK stock markets a sea of red, encouraging economic forecasts and a Chancellor in self-congratulatory mood count for little. 

“The Pound picked up against the Euro, but both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 barely moved following her speech.

“Two big questions remain – how far will equities fall, and will the surge in oil and gas prices nix any chance of interest rate cuts in the coming months?”

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Sam Kirtiker, chief executive of The Mortgage Broker Group, states: “For the mortgage industry, these calmer waters encourage rate switches and remortgages, which in turn encourage competition and put more pressure on lenders to deliver faster, smoother processing and more sustainable affordability.

“What was really missing today was anything that tackles the root problem in housing, and the fact that we still don’t build enough homes in the places people need them.

“Mortgage rates can move up and down, but if supply stays tight, it keeps prices and rents under pressure.”

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Vanessa Hale, Head of Research & Strategy at BNP Paribas Real Estate, says: “We are operating in an environment of constraint. Vacancy rates remain low across many sectors, development pipelines are restricted by viability and planning friction, and regulatory evolution continues to shape investor decision making. 

“For 2026, we are forecasting investment volumes of around £56 billion, representing steady growth on 2025. Pricing is more stable, capital is more decisive and confidence is gradually returning.

“What needs to happen now is greater clarity and delivery. 

“Planning reform must translate into viable development. Energy infrastructure needs to scale at pace to support digital growth. Policy consistency will be critical to unlocking supply. 

“For investors and occupiers alike, the priority is disciplined capital allocation, active asset management and a focus on assets that can deliver resilient income and long-term relevance in a more selective market.”

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Rightmove’s Colleen Babcock adds: “It was always expected to be lower‑key, and the lack of headline‑grabbing announcements should help give movers more confidence and certainty right now.

“Looking ahead to the Autumn Budget, which is the government’s big opportunity for policy change this year, we’d really like to see stamp duty properly looked at. 

“The current bandings haven’t kept up with house prices, and as a result less than half of homes in England are now stamp‑duty free to first-time buyers, falling to just one in ten homes in higher‑priced regions like London. 

“For most movers, the tax is unavoidable, and it can be a real deterrent, particularly for those at the top of chains considering a downsized move.

“With around seven or eight months to go until the Autumn Budget, there’s time for the government to give some serious thought about how the system could be improved.”

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Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “The Chancellor hasn’t delivered any encouragement for first-time buyers, who are the engine room of the housing market and enable transactions to be unlocked further up chains. 

“There was nothing in terms of stimulating more new housing or any detail as to how she plans to increase transactions, which are not only good for the property industry but also job and social mobility, as well as keeping house prices in check.

“While the Spring forecast is unlikely to choke off recent increases in home buyer and seller confidence, what happens in the Middle East – with its potential to increase inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer – may have more of an impact.”

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Published: 02 March 2026

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What is the Spring Statement?

The Spring Statement is effectively an economic update. Unlike the Autumn Budget,  which is typically where major tax and spending decisions are announced, the Spring Statement provides a progress report on the economy and updated forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

While it rarely contains large housing policy changes, it can influence the broader financial outlook, which then plays a significant role in how mortgage rates are set. Stability in inflation, interest rates and government finances supports the conditions lenders rely on when pricing mortgage deals.

This means that the wider economic outlook can still influence household finances and mortgage affordability, even without direct housing announcements.

Will the Spring Statement 2026 affect mortgage rates?

Individual lenders set their own mortgage rates, which are influenced by the base rate and other market factors –  including any measures announced in the upcoming Statement. 

However, the tone and economic signals within the Spring Statement can influence financial markets. If the statement reinforces confidence that inflation is easing and public finances are stable, this can help maintain a steady mortgage rate environment.

Mortgage rates have already adjusted significantly over the past two years, and anticipated base rate movements are typically priced into fixed-rate mortgage deals well in advance. In the current climate, no surprises would actually be a positive outcome for the housing market.

Ultimately, mortgage pricing is driven more by inflation expectations and swap rates (which are used to determine fixed-rate funding). While it’s very rare that political announcements in the Budget have an impact on this, these things do happen – as we experienced with Liz Truss’s mini-budget in 2022.

What does this mean for existing homeowners?

For homeowners currently on a fixed-rate mortgage, the statement itself is unlikely to trigger immediate changes to monthly repayments. However, the broader economic outlook it presents can influence where mortgage rates move in the months ahead.

If you’re approaching the end of a fixed-rate deal in 2026, it’s important not to leave decisions until the last minute. Many lenders allow borrowers to secure a new mortgage rate up to six months in advance. This provides a level of certainty and reassurance, while still allowing flexibility if more competitive remortgage rates become available in the interim.

Acting early also helps avoid reverting onto your lender’s Standard Variable Rate (SVR), which is typically more expensive.

What should homeowners considering moving do?

If you’re thinking about moving home, the key question is what you can comfortably afford now, rather than whether rates might edge slightly lower in the months ahead.

Compared to the volatility of recent years, the housing market is now operating in a far more predictable rate environment. Mortgage lenders have expanded their product ranges, and competition has strengthened as market stability has improved.

While some homeowners may be waiting for mortgage rates to fall further, delaying decisions in the hope of perfect timing can sometimes mean missing opportunities elsewhere in the market. Having clarity on your borrowing power and mortgage options now puts you in a stronger position when the right property becomes available.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall?

It’s natural to hope for lower rates, but expected movements are often already priced into mortgage deals.

While interest rate forecasts suggest the potential for gradual easing, markets adjust ahead of official decisions being made. Waiting for a significant drop could leave borrowers exposed if conditions change unexpectedly.

Whatever your plans are, the more productive approach is understanding what is affordable now, and reviewing options regularly with the guidance of an expert mortgage adviser.

Why speaking to a mortgage adviser matters

The housing market moves quickly, and political announcements don’t always reflect individual circumstances.

A mortgage adviser looks at your income, deposit, long-term plans and more – not just headline rates. Over the past year, we’ve seen continued lender innovation and strong competition across the mortgage market, meaning many borrowers may qualify for solutions they aren’t aware of.

Whether you’re remortgaging, moving home, or reviewing your options, expert advice helps you make informed decisions, regardless of what the Spring Statement does or doesn’t announce. 

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Published: 17 February 2026

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Published: 13 February 2026

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Here are the headlines for the fifth week of the 2026 UK property market (week ending Sunday 8 February 2026).

I, together with Alice Bullard from Nested, analyse the market in the weekly UK Property Market Stats Show. 

+ 10-year week 5 average : 33.4k.

✅ Price Difference between Listings & Sales