Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
Kensal Rise & Queens Park, 69 Chamberlayne Road, London, NW10 3ND
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What is the Spring Statement?

The Spring Statement is effectively an economic update. Unlike the Autumn Budget,  which is typically where major tax and spending decisions are announced, the Spring Statement provides a progress report on the economy and updated forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).


While it rarely contains large housing policy changes, it can influence the broader financial outlook, which then plays a significant role in how mortgage rates are set. Stability in inflation, interest rates and government finances supports the conditions lenders rely on when pricing mortgage deals.

This means that the wider economic outlook can still influence household finances and mortgage affordability, even without direct housing announcements.

Will the Spring Statement 2026 affect mortgage rates?

Individual lenders set their own mortgage rates, which are influenced by the base rate and other market factors –  including any measures announced in the upcoming Statement. 

However, the tone and economic signals within the Spring Statement can influence financial markets. If the statement reinforces confidence that inflation is easing and public finances are stable, this can help maintain a steady mortgage rate environment.


Mortgage rates have already adjusted significantly over the past two years, and anticipated base rate movements are typically priced into fixed-rate mortgage deals well in advance. In the current climate, no surprises would actually be a positive outcome for the housing market.


Ultimately, mortgage pricing is driven more by inflation expectations and swap rates (which are used to determine fixed-rate funding). While it’s very rare that political announcements in the Budget have an impact on this, these things do happen – as we experienced with Liz Truss’s mini-budget in 2022.

What does this mean for existing homeowners?

For homeowners currently on a fixed-rate mortgage, the statement itself is unlikely to trigger immediate changes to monthly repayments. However, the broader economic outlook it presents can influence where mortgage rates move in the months ahead.

If you’re approaching the end of a fixed-rate deal in 2026, it’s important not to leave decisions until the last minute. Many lenders allow borrowers to secure a new mortgage rate up to six months in advance. This provides a level of certainty and reassurance, while still allowing flexibility if more competitive remortgage rates become available in the interim.


Acting early also helps avoid reverting onto your lender’s Standard Variable Rate (SVR), which is typically more expensive.

What should homeowners considering moving do?

If you’re thinking about moving home, the key question is what you can comfortably afford now, rather than whether rates might edge slightly lower in the months ahead.

Compared to the volatility of recent years, the housing market is now operating in a far more predictable rate environment. Mortgage lenders have expanded their product ranges, and competition has strengthened as market stability has improved.


While some homeowners may be waiting for mortgage rates to fall further, delaying decisions in the hope of perfect timing can sometimes mean missing opportunities elsewhere in the market. Having clarity on your borrowing power and mortgage options now puts you in a stronger position when the right property becomes available.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall?

It’s natural to hope for lower rates, but expected movements are often already priced into mortgage deals.


While interest rate forecasts suggest the potential for gradual easing, markets adjust ahead of official decisions being made. Waiting for a significant drop could leave borrowers exposed if conditions change unexpectedly.


Whatever your plans are, the more productive approach is understanding what is affordable now, and reviewing options regularly with the guidance of an expert mortgage adviser.

Why speaking to a mortgage adviser matters

The housing market moves quickly, and political announcements don’t always reflect individual circumstances.

A mortgage adviser looks at your income, deposit, long-term plans and more – not just headline rates. Over the past year, we’ve seen continued lender innovation and strong competition across the mortgage market, meaning many borrowers may qualify for solutions they aren’t aware of.

Whether you’re remortgaging, moving home, or reviewing your options, expert advice helps you make informed decisions, regardless of what the Spring Statement does or doesn’t announce. 

Here are the headlines for the fifth week of the 2026 UK property market (week ending Sunday 8 February 2026).

I, together with Alice Bullard from Nested, analyse the market in the weekly UK Property Market Stats Show. 

 

🟩 Listings – Strong

170k new properties have come onto the market YTD , 1% ahead of 2025, 12% above 2024, and 24% higher than the 2017–19 average.

🟩 GrossSales – Strong

114k UK homes sold STC YTD , 15% higher than 2024 and 23% above pre Covid norms.

🟩Net Sales  – Strong

87k UK net home sales YTD (Gross sales less Fall Thrus)  running 15% ahead of 2024, 33% ahead of 2023 and 19% above the 2017–19 average.

🟩Overvaluing  – Awful

Some 47% of the homes that left UK Estate Agents books in January were withdrawn unsold. Main cause – blatant overvaluing supported by long sole agency agreements of 20+ weeks.

 New Listings

+ 36.9k new properties came onto market this week in week 5, up from 36.6k last week.

+ 2025 weekly average: 30.6k.

+ 10-year week 5 average : 33.4k.

 Price Reductions

+ 21k reductions this week

+ 12.2% of resi homes for sale were reduced in January. Jan 25 – 12.8%.   Jan 24 – 11.1%

+ 2025 average was 12.8%, versus the 5-year long-term average of 10.74%.

 Sales Agreed

+ 25.4k homes sold stc this week 5, slightly down as expected from 26k last week.

+ Week 5 average (for last 10 years) : 24.8k

+ 2026 weekly average : 22.2k.

 Price Difference between Listings & Sales

+ 19.7% difference (long term 10 year average is 16% to 17%).  (£425k ave Listing Ave Asking price vs £366k Sale Agreed ave Asking price)

 Sell-Through Rate 

+ 13.6% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in January ’26. (Jan ’25 – 15% / Jan ’24 – 13.9%)

+ Pre-Covid average: 15.5%.

 Fall-Throughs

+  5,468 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 423k home Sold STC).

+ Weekly average for 2025: 6,100.

+ Fall-through rate: 21.5%, slightly up from 20.5% last week.

+ Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%).

 Net Sales

+ 20k Net sales, down slightly from 20.7k last week

+ Ten-year Week 5 average: 19.7k.

+ Weekly average for 2026: 17.4k.

+ Weekly average for the whole of 2025: 19.2k.

 Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal)

+ Jan ’26  Stats : 53% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed in Jan. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more Feb stats come in).

+ December 60.2% / November 55.2% / October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%.

+ Jan 25: 54.3% / Jan 24: 50.7% / Jan 23: 54.4%  / Jan 22: 68.6%.

 Stock Levels 

+ 663k homes on the market on the 1st of February ’26. (660k – Jan 25)

+ 422k homes in agent’s sales pipeline on the 1st Feb 2026, slightly lower than 12 months ago on 1st Feb ’25 (433k).

 House Prices (£/sq.ft)

+ January ’26  agreed sales averaged £340.73 per sq.ft. 0.63% higher than 12 months ago (£338.59) and 16% than 5 years ago (£293.54). The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important.

The average UK private tenant spent £10,580 on rent in 2025 – equivalent to 41% of their net income.  

This marks a significant rise from 2024 when renters spent an average of 36% of their take-home pay on rent. 

The personal share of rent paid by each tenant increased by £684 (6.9%), while average net income rose only modestly from £27,710 to £28,810.  

The analysis by Canopy looked at some 119,000 individual renters, measuring average take-home salary of employed tenants against their share of rental costs.

Typically, spending 40% of take-home salary is considered the very outer limit of affordability.

Canopy says this indicates that the majority of tenants are currently at the edge of what is considered financially feasible or ‘comfortable’. 

Affordability worsens regionally across the UK  

Several regions now exceed the 40% affordability benchmark.

London is the least affordable region at 48%, despite having the highest average income at £37,600. 

Following close behind is the South East, with a 44% rent-to-income ratio. 

The North East offers the most affordable rent, with an average rent-to-income ratio being a third of their take home salary (34%).

Yorkshire and The Humber is just above at 35%. 

Full regional breakdown 

  1. London: 48% 
  2. South East: 44% 
  3. East of England: 42% 
  4. South West: 41% 
  5. East Midlands: 38% 
  6. West Midlands: 38% 
  7. North West: 37% 
  8. Scotland: 37% 
  9. Wales: 37% 
  10. Yorkshire and The Humber: 35% 

Least vs most affordable cities to rent 

The South of England continues to dominate the list of least affordable cities, but affordability pressures are now spreading northwards. Edinburgh and Manchester have now entered the top 10 least affordable cities. 

Outside London, Brighton has overtaken Bournemouth as the least affordable city, with renters spending 47% of their income on rent. 

In contrast, northern cities continue to offer the most manageable rent-to-income ratios. Durham, Doncaster and Hull top the list as the most affordable places to rent, with tenants spending just 32% of their income on rent. 

Young adults hit hardest 

According to the data, renters aged 18-25 are spending 50% of their take-home pay on rent, leaving little room for other essential costs and making saving for a house deposit increasingly difficult.  

On the other hand, rent-to-income ratios improve for those aged 26-45, but still sit at 40%, pushing the limits of affordability. 

 
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