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Published: 02 February 2026

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UK house prices are expected to rise by 3% in 2026, despite recent increases in borrowing costs and economic uncertainty, according to Knight Frank. While stronger-than-expected UK data has pushed mortgage rates higher in recent weeks, the prospect of lower rates later in the year is one factor supporting price growth.

Markets had been expecting two Bank Rate cuts this year, though the likelihood of these reductions has fallen, with the five-year swap rate – a benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages – rising from 3.55% to 3.75%. This change suggests fewer lenders will be cutting rates in the near term, even as overall house prices are forecast to continue their upward trend.

“A lot of company earnings have been talking about the uncertain environment and headwinds they’re facing,” said Pepperstone research analyst Michael Brown. “So, I’m not saying I distrust the PMI, but I don’t think we should overreact to one report that doesn’t sing from the hymn sheet that all of the other reports do. We need to look at the data through February in terms of how the labour market is evolving.”

In other words, if more economic cracks start to show, expect markets to start betting more heavily on a second rate cut this year. And prepare for more optimistic news on mortgages.

One area of weakness that could increase the chances of a second cut this year is the jobs market.

“The recent jobs numbers pointed to a fourth straight monthly decline in employment,” said Brown. “It was the biggest month-on-month fall in employment since November of 2020 when we were going into a lockdown.”

Before the recent jump in borrowing costs, the housing market had responded positively to the certainty that followed November’s Budget. The number of transactions in December was in line with the five-year average, HMRC said on Friday.

However, mortgage approvals were down 9% in the same month, suggesting a pre-Christmas rush to complete rather than the start of a more meaningful upturn in demand.

“Two other factors have put upwards pressure on borrowing costs in recent weeks, said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.

“First, the prospect of a debt-funded spending spree by the Japanese government, which has pushed global bond yields higher in recent weeks,” he explained. “Second, there is a similar concern closer to home. The possibility that Prime minister Keir Starmer could be challenged unnerved bond markets last month when Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham announced he would stand in this month’s Gorton and Denton by-election.”

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Published: 26 January 2026

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HMRC has confirmed that filing Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) returns will fall within the scope of the new tax adviser registration rules, which is expected to increase the compliance burden on conveyancing teams already operating under pressure. The changes are due to take effect from May 2026.

In response, specialist SDLT advisers SCA Tax has launched Post Complete, a workflow-led SDLT calculation and review service aimed at helping firms handle complex SDLT positions while maintaining efficiency. Every transaction is reviewed by tax-qualified specialists, and firms receive clear, audit-ready documentation for client files, including a PDF Tax Calculation Certificate and supporting assessment breakdown. Each calculation is also supported by professional indemnity insurance underwritten by Allianz.

The launch follows HMRC’s confirmation that SDLT filings are treated as tax advice under the proposed tax adviser registration regime outlined in the Finance Bill 2025–26. Further guidance is expected later this month, but the direction is clear: increased accountability, tighter standards, and greater financial risk for firms where SDLT submissions are inaccurate or poorly documented.

Post Complete provides a structured process for all SDLT scenarios without slowing completions. Firms create an account, add a client record, and submit the transaction for review. SCA Tax’s team then gathers the necessary information to complete the assessment, including cases involving reliefs, exemptions, mixed-use claims, multiple dwellings, or surcharges, ensuring compliance with HMRC’s Standards for Agents and Agent Conduct requirements.

Matthew Gannon, who joined SCA Tax from PwC last year to lead the Post Complete team, said: “We know these changes are coming, and there’s no benefit in waiting for the final guidance before firms start putting stronger processes in place. SDLT already creates pressure points in transactions – the last thing the market needs is completions being delayed because teams are forced to rebuild their approach overnight.

“Post Complete is designed to help property professionals stay ahead of the change, keep transactions moving, and make sure SDLT positions are properly assessed and documented.

“We launched earlier this month, and we’re already speaking to conveyancing firms and the wider property chain – including estate agents, auction houses, mortgage brokers and financial advisers – because this affects everyone involved in getting deals over the line.

“If we want the market to move, we need processes that reduce delays, not add to them.”

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Published: 19 January 2026

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The average price of homes newly listed on the market for sale has increased by 2.8% in just one month.

Rightmove reports a rise equivalent to £9,893 on the average British homes.

This is the largest increase in the month of January in Rightmove’s 25 years of House Price Index reporting. 

It is also the largest month-on-month price increase of any month since June 2015. 

After underperforming against historical averages in eight out of twelve months during 2025, national average property prices are now 0.5% higher than at this time last year. 

January’s recovery brings average asking prices close to where they were in August 2025, as market sentiment rebounds from the rumours and uncertainty around the November Budget. 

However, price trends in regions and local markets across Britain are more volatile.

While most regions rise in price this January, the East Midlands and Scotland buck the trend with price falls. 

The portal says a recovery in property prices is a good sign for the health of the market at the start of the year, it warns that sellers mustn’t get carried away.

The number of available homes on the market, and therefore the number of other sellers to compete with, is still at its highest level for this time of year since 2014. 

Additionally, a third of homes already on the market are having their asking price reduced. 

Therefore, sellers need to strike a balance between price ambition and market realism when setting their asking price to give themselves the best chance of finding a buyer and getting their home sold.

Rightmove says in the two weeks after Christmas Day, buyer demand, as measured by the number of people contacting agents to enquire about homes for sale, rose by 57%.

And the number of homes newly listed for sale rose by 81% compared with the two weeks before Christmas Day. 

This illustrates how the much-hyped Boxing Day bounce kick-started the return of home-movers to market. 

Rightmove recorded its busiest ever Boxing Day for visits to its platform. 

And over the last week, buyer demand is lower than last year, when buyer activity was boosted by some buyers trying to find a property and complete their purchase before stamp duty rose in England in April 2025. 

However, buyer demand is in line with 2024. 

The portal says it’s an encouraging early snapshot, and as the start of the year progresses it will become clearer if this momentum is maintained into the peak Spring selling season.

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Published: 15 January 2026

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The UK housing market remained subdued at the end of 2025, but sentiment is showing signs of improvement as expectations for sales and prices turn more positive following a period of reduced political uncertainty.

The latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey shows buyer demand and agreed sales remained in negative territory in December, reflecting a market that has been weak for much of the year. New buyer enquiries recorded a net balance of -24%, while agreed sales stood at -19%. Both indicators improved modestly on the previous month, suggesting the pace of decline is easing.

Forward-looking indicators showed a clearer shift in sentiment. Sales expectations for the next three months rose to +22%, the highest level since October 2024. Looking twelve months ahead, a net balance of +34% of respondents expect sales volumes to increase, more than double November’s reading. Surveyors cited easing interest rate expectations and the removal of Budget-related uncertainty as key factors supporting confidence.

Supply conditions stabilised, with new vendor instructions flattening to a net balance of 0% after several months of decline. While this indicates market conditions have stopped weakening, low appraisal activity suggests any increase in available stock is likely to be gradual.

House prices continued to fall at a national level, with a net balance of -14%, although the pace of decline moderated. Regional differences remain pronounced, with sharper falls reported in London (-42%) and the South East (-32%), while Scotland and Northern Ireland continued to record price growth. Short-term price expectations have moved close to neutral, and a net balance of +35% of respondents now expect prices to rise over the next year, the most positive outlook since late 2024.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, commented: “The renewed confidence seen in recent weeks underlines the rule that the less a government intervenes in the housing market, the closer it operates to full capacity. The combination of clarity around taxation and the prospect of further rate cuts means demand in the first weeks of January has been stronger than normal. That doesn’t mean the market is now on an upwards trajectory and domestic political risks could still undermine sentiment over the next six months. For now, the absence of bad news means that some of the demand that became pent up last year is being released and we expect UK prices to grow by 3% this year.”

The lettings market remains under pressure. Tenant demand weakened further in December (-27%), while new landlord instructions stayed deeply negative (-39%), underlining persistent supply constraints. Rents are expected to keep rising, with average rental growth forecast at around 3% over the next twelve months.

Bill added: “Tenant demand has been relatively strong in the lettings market following the Budget and the clarity it brought. However, supply is still under pressure as more landlords sell up due to the proliferation of red tape and taxes in recent years. The big test in 2026 will be the Renters’ Rights Act, with some prospective landlords sitting on their hands to watch how it plays out and whether the court system becomes overwhelmed. As supply comes under pressure, it means upwards pressure on rents will persist, which is exactly the sort of unintended consequence that governments worry about when they design new legislation.”

While activity on the ground remains subdued, the December survey suggests the market may be turning a corner. With interest rates expected to fall further and confidence rebuilding, the foundations are being laid for a more active start to 2026.

RICS’ head of market research and analysis, Tarrant Parsons, commented: “The UK residential market remains in a prolonged soft patch, with December’s survey recording a sixth consecutive month of negative momentum in buyer enquiries. That said, there are tentative signs of a shift in sentiment beneath the surface.

“Near-term sales expectations have strengthened, and the twelve-month outlook has edged into more positive territory. The key test for 2026 will be whether borrowing costs ease on a sustained basis. If so, this could provide the catalyst needed to drive a recovery in buyer demand.”